The fact that the hobbit held the record just goes to show its the hardcore fans that tweet multiple times that drive the numbers. It's great to hold the record, no doubt and I do believe CF has 400m potential, but I don't think twitter is a good barometer for the massive success the movie will have.
I think if it were that simple, though, Breaking Dawn and the Twilight films would have posted stronger showings. The fan base is a huge part of it, yes, but even on Twitter it takes a significant amount of interest from a wide range of people to drive numbers this high.
Hobbit didn't lack mainstream interest a year out from release--it just lost some of that momentum later in 2012 when buzz around the movie tapered off because of lowering expectations. That's why correlations between Twitter activity and box office can be misleading without deeper analysis (just like it is with everything else). Every movie has a unique set of circumstances.
Edited by ShawnMR, 23 April 2013 - 02:05 PM.
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