45 replies to this topic

[ShawnMR]

Full Article: http://www.boxoffice...ngover-part-iii

 

 

Remember 2007? That year's summer kick-off month of May boasted what may have been the highest profile single month of releases in modern--or any--box office history. Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End all followed such massive blockbuster predecessors that, despite none of them quite reaching box office expectations, they still combined for a multiple record-setting May.

 

The years since have seen their fair share of big movies in May, but none equal to what is now lovingly referred among the box office community as 2007's "The Big Three".

 

2013 is getting ready to deliver a very packed May itself, though. The month's four biggest releases represent follow-up flicks whose predecessors each took in at least $200 million domestically. Two of them stood out with great-to-excellent word of mouth (Star Trek and Fast Five) while the other two were generally regarded as hits that didn't live up to the hype (Iron Man 2 and The Hangover Part II)...

[CJohn]

Seems obvious that yes, it is. Something is going to fail.

[tribefan695]

I think if either Hangover or Fast Six just took the 5/31 weekend we'd be all set.

[bofan]

Hangover gotta fail.No marketing and i doubt that  we will see new story.

[JackO]

I don't think it is overcrowded at all. It is the summer. If the films are good enough, market will expand. 

[CJohn]

Hangover 3 needs to move. Fast is a bigger franchise now. I am thinking on creating a 300M DOM total club for it.

[kitik]

No, its not overcrowded, but I think most folks are expecting Hangover 3 to be down quite a bit from the previous one. Well under $200 million.

[Cmasterclay]

There's still a huge teen fanbase for Hangover that doesn't care how much the story repeats. It'll drop but still be a huge hit. Gatsby is going to do better than people expect as well.  June is very, very crowded too. Personally, I'd move one of the big films to that third weekend in July slot that's only occupied by R.I.P.D. this year. 

[tribefan695]

Isn't RIPD going for the same demo? The May 31st weekend only has a low-budget thriller right now. I don't know why something doesn't move there.

[Robert Muldoon]

Yes don't forget about Epic

[Chewy]

Yes don't forget about Epic

 

But it looks so forgettable

[ShawnMR]

I definitely see Hangover 3 dropping, but it feels comparable to Transformers and Ocean's where the second films disappointed crowds and led to a drop with the third film. Better word of mouth pending, I could see TH3 doing well enough to still hit $200m... but $150-175m wouldn't shock me either.

 

The other three films are near locks to open huge on varying levels. Word of mouth for Trek may be the most crucial since it's in between everything.

[Robert Muldoon]

Fast Six in my opinion would benefit the most from moving. Hangover 3 still has an advantage of being the only comedy film of the month while Fast 6 is the third action tentpole of the month

[Michael G Scott]

I think people are underestimating hangover it's the only comedy coming out in a month of mostly action flicks

[Jay Beezy]

Fast Six in my opinion would benefit the most from moving. Hangover 3 still has an advantage of being the only comedy film of the month while Fast 6 is the third action tentpole of the month

Hangover is also a sequel to a lesser received film, which downplays the fact that it's the only comedy of the month. It wouldn't hurt Hangover at all to move it back a week.

Star Trek may be its own beast, a legit sci-fi epic with a story to tell, and audiences have shown themselves to enjoy that, but it doesn't have the unhinged mayhem and 'vehicular warefare' that audiences tend to want in a summer film and Fast Six looks to have that.

Edited by Jay Beezy, 05 February 2013 - 10:37 AM.

[Jam90]

Yh it's the only comedy and the poor reception of the second one is not as bad as you may think the Hangover franchise is massively popular and a large number of fans will turn out regardless.

[Robert Muldoon]

Hangover is also a sequel to a lesser received film, which downplays the fact that it's the only comedy of the month. It wouldn't hurt Hangover at all to move it back a week.

Star Trek may be its own beast, a legit sci-fi epic with a story to tell, and audiences have shown themselves to enjoy that, but it doesn't have the unhinged mayhem and 'vehicular warefare' that audiences tend to want in a summer film and Fast Six looks to have that.

 

 

The Hangover 2 still made a lot of money and sold well on DVD, and people can still go to it despite the reception of the second since it seems lots of people prefer laughs over action 

[Michael G Scott]

The only hatred of hangover 2 I see is on here

[Jam90]

Yh true among young men and women of what i know age 18 to 25 the whole "wolfpack" Hangover thing is hugely popular no comedy compares to it's popularity not even Ted they love the premise even if it's unchanged.

[Jay Beezy]

The Hangover 2 still made a lot of money and sold well on DVD, and people can still go to it despite the reception of the second since it seems lots of people prefer laughs over action

It dropped off significantly after opening weekend, so it'll really be a test as to whether it performs as the first comedy of the month or a sequel to a film that dropped off a lot after the first weekend. And considering the highest grossing films are action films, your last point is debatable.