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Japan Box Office - Godzilla Back Home After Overseas Escapade (7/26-27))


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#8361
Corpse

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Best Multipliers of 2014
 
Requirements:
*Opening above ¥100 million (~$1 million)
*5+ weeks in release
 
x32.82 - Frozen [19 Weeks]
x16.05 - The Eternal Zero [Estimate]
x10.73 - The Liar and His Lover [Estimate]
x10.36 - Gravity [Estimate]
x9.27 - The Little House [Estimate]
x8.85 - Thermae Romae II [Estimate]
x8.38 - The Tale of Princess Kaguya [Final]
x7.62 - The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji [Estimate]
x7.49 - Partners the Movie 3 [Estimate]
x7.37 - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 [Estimate]
x7.29 - Planes [Estimate]
x7.14 - Walking with Dinosaurs [Estimate]
x6.77 - The Secret Life of Walter Mitty [Estimate]
x6.50 - Lupin III vs. Detective Conan [Final]
x6.44 - Silver Spoon [Estimate]
x6.22 - Mission Impossible: Samurai [5 Weeks in Release]
x6.17 - A Bolt from the Blue [Estimate]
x5.93 - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party [Estimate]
x5.81 - The Snow White Murder Case [Estimate]
x5.42 - Wood Job! [Estimate]
x5.25 - I Want to Hold You [Estimate]
x5.25 - Trick: The Last Stage [Estimate]
x5.22 - Crayon-Shin chan: Serious Battle! Robot Dad Strikes [Estimate]
x5.14 - Noah [6 Weeks in Release]
x5.13 - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension [Estimate]
x4.97 - Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 [Estimate]
x4.94 - The Wolf of Wall Street [Estimate]
x4.92 - Enchanted Kingdom 3D [Estimate]
x4.91 - Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit [Estimate]
x4.80 - Captain Phillips [Estimate]
x4.79 - Team Batista: Kerberos's Final Portrait [Estimate]
x4.68 - Monsterz [Estimate]
x4.60 - Tiger & Bunny: The Rising [Estimate]
x4.56 - Kamen Rider Gaim & Wizard [Estimate]
x4.53 - Red 2 [Estimate]
x4.48 - Ushijima the Loan Shark 2 [Estimate]
x4.47 - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug [Estimate]
x4.36 - The Escape Plan [Estimate]
x4.21 - My Little Nightmare [Estimate]
x4.03 - All-Around Appraiser Q: Mona Lisa's Eye [Estimate]
x4.01 - Black Butler [Estimate]
x3.96 - Robocop [Estimate]
x3.84 - Hensei Rider vs Showa Rider: Kamen Rider Taisen feat. Super Sentei [Estimate]
x3.79 - 47 Ronin [Estimate]
x3.78 - X-Men: Days of Future Past [Estimate]
x3.75 - Kiki's Delivery Service [Estimate]
x3.67 - Crows: Explode [Estimate]
x3.60 - The IDOLM@STER Movie [Estimate]
x3.42 - Thor: The Dark World [Estimate]
x3.39 - Captain America: The Winter Soldier [Estimate]
x3.39 - Kamen Teacher the Movie [Estimate]
x3.23 - Mobile Suit Gundam UC: Episode 7 - Over the Rainbow [Estimate]
x3.09 - Zyuden Sentai Kyoryuger Vs. Go-Busters: The Great Dinosaur Battle [Estimate]
 
Best Multipliers (Wide-Releases) [1998-]
Spoiler

“Grown-ups don't look like grown-ups on the inside either. Outside, they're big and thoughtless and they always know what they're doing. Inside, they look just like they always have. Like they did when they were your age. Truth is, there aren't any grown-ups. Not one, in the whole wide world.”

#8362
LABAS

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発売前に予约だけでミリオンセラーとなっていたが、20日の时点で201万4495枚を売り上げた。さらにレンタル回数も同日に100万回を突破し、オン デマンドでも14万视聴を超えるヒットとなった。剧场版「アナと雪の女王」は3月14日に日本公开され、19日までに兴行収入250亿円を突破、観客动员 は2000万人に迫る势いだ。

 また、メンバーズサイト「MovieNEXCLUB」への登录数は既に30万以上、MovieNEXの机能の一つであるスマホやタブレットなどで本编视聴が楽しめるデジタルコピーの利用も12万件に及んでいる

 

 

If not mistaken, the digital copy is included in this number. The movienex has sold 201, 4495 copies as of July 20.

This storm is all the rage...



#8363
Corpse

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Godzilla looks pretty healthy so far today (Friday opening), but nothing indicating it's going to see a huge opening this weekend.
 
My early projection for Friday is ¥150-175 million ($1.5-1.7 million).  Friday's normally account for around 20% of the 3-day take (+/-5% for adult/kid films), so an opening weekend of ¥450-550 million ($4.5/5.5 million) with a 3-day total of ¥600-700 million ($6/7 million) perhaps based on Friday's ticket sales so far.  I'd lean closer to the low-end of both ranges though to account for any old fans of the franchise coming out early.    
 
I haven't checked Saturday pre-sales yet though.
 
An opening in this range would get it to ¥3.5-4 billion ($35/40 million) with normal Summer legs.    

Edited by Corpse, 24 July 2014 - 09:53 PM.

“Grown-ups don't look like grown-ups on the inside either. Outside, they're big and thoughtless and they always know what they're doing. Inside, they look just like they always have. Like they did when they were your age. Truth is, there aren't any grown-ups. Not one, in the whole wide world.”

#8364
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Corpse, which movie do you think will be the next 250 million dollar grosser in Japan? :unsure:



#8365
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Edge of tomorrow looks like it's struggling, does it still have a chance at $20 million?


Top anticipated movies of 2014: 1. Interstellar 2. HTTYD2 3. The Battle of the five amies 4. Big hero six 5. Dawn of the planet of the Apes

#8366
keysersoze123

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Godzilla looks pretty healthy so far today (Friday opening), but nothing indicating it's going to see a huge opening this weekend.
 
My early projection for Friday is ¥150-175 million ($1.5-1.7 million).  Friday's normally account for around 20% of the 3-day take (+/-5% for adult/kid films), so an opening weekend of ¥450-550 million ($4.5/5.5 million) with a 3-day total of ¥600-700 million ($6/7 million) perhaps based on Friday's ticket sales so far.  I'd lean closer to the low-end of both ranges though to account for any old fans of the franchise coming out early.    
 
I haven't checked Saturday pre-sales yet though.
 
An opening in this range would get it to ¥3.5-4 billion ($35/40 million) with normal Summer legs.    

 

 

I think that should be enough to win the weekend and break disney's streak.



#8367
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Corpse, is it possible for a multiplier of around 6-8x for godzilla since its legs in us was terribad even though legs in japan should be good?

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#8368
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Corpse, which movie do you think will be the next 250 million dollar grosser in Japan? :unsure:

 

I think he indicated a couple months ago that we may not see anything pass 20b again this decade, or possibly ever. Frozen could be the last.


2014: 1) How to Train Your Dragon 2 2) The Raid 2  3) Veronica Mars 4) The Wind Rises 5) Patema Inverted 6) Edge of Tomorrow 7) Unforgiven (Japan) 8) X-Men: Days of Future Past 9) Once Upon a Time in Shanghai 10) Mr. Peabody & Sherman  11) Maleficent 12) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 13) The Lego Movie  14) Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit  15) Captain America: The Winter Soldier 16) The House of Magic 17) Firestorm


#8369
Mojoguy

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I think he indicated a couple months ago that we may not see anything pass 20b again this decade, or possibly ever. Frozen could be the last.

Do you mean because of Japan's expected population decline in the next few years?



#8370
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Do you mean because of Japan's expected population decline in the next few years?

 

It's already declining. It hit a peak in 2010 and is slightly below that mark. There's nothing to indicate this trend will change.

 

Besides that, the population is aging, which will probably mean a relative decrease in movie-going, per capita. (Though Japan is already not an especially movie-going country.)

 

And even though there was the ticket price hike earlier this year, it seems like there's a lot of resistance to increased ticket prices, which prevents inflation from causing future movies to gross more.

 

So, unless there is another huge outlier like Frozen, it doesn't seem likely that any film will cross the 20b threshold again. I suppose if Miyazaki comes out of retirement and does something that really captures the public conscience that could do it, but outside of that...

 

Of course, it's entirely possible a film could gross more than $200m in the future, despite the population trends. If the dollar gets especially weak, a lower Japanese gross could lead to hitting that mark. Avatar 2, for instance, could get something around the gross of the first and possibly do it, depending on the exchange rate.


2014: 1) How to Train Your Dragon 2 2) The Raid 2  3) Veronica Mars 4) The Wind Rises 5) Patema Inverted 6) Edge of Tomorrow 7) Unforgiven (Japan) 8) X-Men: Days of Future Past 9) Once Upon a Time in Shanghai 10) Mr. Peabody & Sherman  11) Maleficent 12) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 13) The Lego Movie  14) Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit  15) Captain America: The Winter Soldier 16) The House of Magic 17) Firestorm


#8371
Corpse

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Godzilla did really well yesterday (Friday).  I'm thinking 120-130,000 admissions and 175 million ($1.7 million) for the day.  This should be strong enough to lock up an opening above 500 million ($5 million+), though 600 million ($6 million+) seems reasonable, too, unless a lot of old fans already turned up.  It should have a easy path to opening at #1 either way. 

 

 

As for the next $200/250 million film.... I think we'll have to wait a really long time and everything on the horizon will be lucky to earn half that amount.  

 

Avatar 2 will need a big admissions increase to beat the first film.  I don't see it honestly, and expect it to drop-off like nearly every sequel to a major-blockbuster does.  The first Avatar was largely an event film in theaters (and in 3D) only.  Its DVD/Blu-ray sales were low compared to its box-office, and tv ratings have never been that strong when it's aired.  Same for Finding Nemo 2.  

 

Simply put, it's incredibly unlikely to ever be a sequel.  Except for Bayside Shakedown 2 and Harry Potter 2/3, original films dominate the top 20/25 highest-grossing films chart.

 

Mamoru Hosoda's films have been increasing exponentially at the box-office, and his last, The Wolf Children, became the highest-grossing non-brand (Disney/Ghibli/etc.) animated film ever.  His last three films have all be major critical successes, too, having swept the animation categories every time.  His next film should be released in 2015/2016, so it could have a very slight chance.

 

A future film by Takashi Yamazaki.  He's becoming one of Japan's most-successful directors, both critically and at the box-office.  His last film, The Eternal Zero, was a major success and the 3rd most-attended local live-action film ever.  He has a full schedule of adapted films coming up in the next year or two though, but he definitely has the potential to deliver something original that captivates audiences.  Keep an eye on him.  


“Grown-ups don't look like grown-ups on the inside either. Outside, they're big and thoughtless and they always know what they're doing. Inside, they look just like they always have. Like they did when they were your age. Truth is, there aren't any grown-ups. Not one, in the whole wide world.”

#8372
J LO

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Godzilla did really well yesterday (Friday).  I'm thinking 120-130,000 admissions and 175 million ($1.7 million) for the day.  This should be strong enough to lock up an opening above 500 million ($5 million+), though 600 million ($6 million+) seems reasonable, too, unless a lot of old fans already turned up.  It should have a easy path to opening at #1 either way. 

 

 

As for the next $200/250 million film.... I think we'll have to wait a really long time and everything on the horizon will be lucky to earn half that amount.  

 

Avatar 2 will need a big admissions increase to beat the first film.  I don't see it honestly, and expect it to drop-off like nearly every sequel to a major-blockbuster does.  The first Avatar was largely an event film in theaters (and in 3D) only.  Its DVD/Blu-ray sales were low compared to its box-office, and tv ratings have never been that strong when it's aired.  Same for Finding Nemo 2.  

 

Simply put, it's incredibly unlikely to ever be a sequel.  Except for Bayside Shakedown 2 and Harry Potter 2/3, original films dominate the top 20/25 highest-grossing films chart.

 

Mamoru Hosoda's films have been increasing exponentially at the box-office, and his last, The Wolf Children, became the highest-grossing non-brand (Disney/Ghibli/etc.) animated film ever.  His last three films have all be major critical successes, too, having swept the animation categories every time.  His next film should be released in 2015/2016, so it could have a very slight chance.

 

A future film by Takashi Yamazaki.  He's becoming one of Japan's most-successful directors, both critically and at the box-office.  His last film, The Eternal Zero, was a major success and the 3rd most-attended local live-action film ever.  He has a full schedule of adapted films coming up in the next year or two though, but he definitely has the potential to deliver something original that captivates audiences.  Keep an eye on him.  

 

Corpse, what is your estimation for Godzilla in Japan's entire run? 



#8373
J LO

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Do you mean because of Japan's expected population decline in the next few years?

"Japan's population has been shrinking for several years now. If current trends persist it will lose a third of its population in the next 50 years.

A quarter of the population is currently aged over 65 and that figure is expected to reach nearly 40% by 2060."

http://www.bbc.co.uk...d-asia-25566868

 

I am getting old too by 2060! :(   Any medicine which can keep me young? :huh:   


Edited by J LO, 25 July 2014 - 06:46 AM.


#8374
PokeHex

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How much has Marnie and Pokemon each made respectively in the last 6-7 days?




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