Jump to content

Cinebrate-web-banner-728x90


  • Start New Topic
Welcome to the BoxOffice® Forums
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. This message will be removed once you have signed in. Please note that forum accounts are separate from BoxOffice.com subscriber accounts.
Login to Account Create an Account
Photo

BO.com Analysis: NEIGHBORS, 22 JUMP STREET Poised to Lead Summer of Comedy; Will TAMMY, SEX TAPE, or LET'S BE COPS Break Out?


  • Please log in to reply
24 replies to this topic

#1
ShawnMR

ShawnMR

  • Forum Admin
  • 14,401 posts
  • Joined November 04, 2011
  • 465 topics

As Neighbors prepares to move in with a bang this weekend, we're taking a look at this summer's packed comedy line-up. Recent years have given movie fans a steady output of breakouts in the genre (especially the R-rated breed), and the next few months shouldn't break from that trend.

 

Notable points include the emerging legacy of "the Judd Apatow crew", which will be ever-present this summer as Seth Rogen, Jonah Hill, and Jason Segel each headline their latest works. Also, Universal looks to continue its strong start to 2014, while Sony has three potential winners lined up for the heart of summer. 

 

Neighbors (Universal)May 9

 

Seth Rogen and Zac Efron headline this hit-in-waiting about new parents battling the fraternity next door, and the combination of the two leading men should serve to attract both men and women.  Fandango pre-sales suggest an opening near $40 million, possibly more, could be in store. Opening weekend demand will lean more toward Rogen's established fan base, but the film's reportedly strong balance of gags and heart indicates Neighbors will play well in the weeks ahead. As the first widely appealing comedy to open since winter, the stars are aligning for Neighbors in a way that proved advantageous for summer releases like Knocked UpThe HangoverBridesmaids, and Ted... (more)

 

Full story: http://www.boxoffice...ummer-of-comedy


Edited by ShawnMR, 08 May 2014 - 12:09 PM.

Save the Forums! Donation Campaign for Independent, Member-Funded Hosting

 

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien


#2
baumer

baumer

    Moderator

  • General Moderator
  • 43,513 posts
  • Joined November 05, 2011
  • 1,838 topics
  • LocationCamp Crystal Lake

I'm really surprised you don't think TLAMT is going to be one of the top films of the ones mentioned.  The first one made almost 100 million and Hart is hot this year which probably means an opening of 40 mill or more.  With summer legs it gets past 120.  That might be enough to get it top three.


If Jason still haunts you, you're not alone.


#3
stuart360

stuart360

    Box Office Gold

  • Free Account
  • PipPipPip
  • 3,086 posts
  • Joined November 24, 2011
  • 2 topics

You forgot 'Jupiter Ascending' off your list Shawn.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:ph34r:


THIS TIME ITS WAR!
Posted Image

#4
kitik

kitik

    Summer Tentpole

  • Free Account
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 8,103 posts
  • Joined July 02, 2012
  • 36 topics
  • LocationToledo

22 Jump Street is going to be huge.

 

Not only do I expect a large opening weekend, but I think it's pretty much a lock for 200M.



#5
baumer

baumer

    Moderator

  • General Moderator
  • 43,513 posts
  • Joined November 05, 2011
  • 1,838 topics
  • LocationCamp Crystal Lake

22 Jump Street is going to be huge.

 

Not only do I expect a large opening weekend, but I think it's pretty much a lock for 200M.

 

That's a huge number for a comedy.  You're talking Hangover numbers.  I don't think it will be that big.


If Jason still haunts you, you're not alone.


#6
CoolioD1

CoolioD1

    Global Phenomenon

  • Free Account
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,699 posts
  • Joined November 08, 2011
  • 65 topics
  • Locationdo dope, fuck hope

Let's Be Cops looks like a butt.

 

I'm sure the rest will do pretty well. Just hopefully not that one.



#7
grim22

grim22

    Global Phenomenon

  • Free Account
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,036 posts
  • Joined June 14, 2012
  • 170 topics

THR weighs in: http://www.hollywood...ing-soft-702409

 

Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore's upcoming Blended may have trouble crossing $25 million in its domestic debut, based on early tracking. The comedy reunites the two stars for the first time since box office hit 50 First Dates a decade ago. Blended opens opposite goliath X-Men: Days of Future Past on May 23, the beginning of the long Memorial Day holiday weekend. Bullish box office observers believe Fox's Days of Future Pastcould approach $125 million in its four-day debut.

Also opening on May 30 is Seth MacFarlane's R-rated Western comedy A Million Ways to Die in the West. Early tracking is good for the Universal and Media Rights Capital movie, which should open north of $35 million, a solid start considering it's a Western, a difficult genre. That won't match the $54.4 million debut of MacFarlane's Ted on the same weekend in 2012, but that film had the advantage of starring Mark Wahlberg and a fuzzy teddy bear.

 


ZfSxJ3Z.gif


#8
baumer

baumer

    Moderator

  • General Moderator
  • 43,513 posts
  • Joined November 05, 2011
  • 1,838 topics
  • LocationCamp Crystal Lake

Tracking is such a crap shoot, they are wrong just as much as they are right.


If Jason still haunts you, you're not alone.


#9
#ED

#ED

    NICK'S DAD

  • Junior Moderator
  • 18,916 posts
  • Joined July 24, 2012
  • 97 topics
  • LocationNew York , NY

No mention of Blended? Seems legit. 

 

Poor Sandler. When was the last time any of his movies became profitable or funny?



#10
CJohn

CJohn

    Global Phenomenon

  • General Moderator
  • 40,388 posts
  • Joined November 08, 2011
  • 587 topics
  • LocationPortugal

Lets Be Cops is gonna gross 30-40M, IMO. 


Next 4 Weeks Predictions (Updates on Mondays and Thursdays):

- The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 - 155/385

- Horrible Bosses 2 - 28/43/102 | Penguins of Madagascar - 25/42/104

- The Pyramid - 5/11

- Exodus: Gods and Kings - 43/145 | Top Five - 4/9 


#11
baumer

baumer

    Moderator

  • General Moderator
  • 43,513 posts
  • Joined November 05, 2011
  • 1,838 topics
  • LocationCamp Crystal Lake

No mention of Blended? Seems legit. 

 

Poor Sandler. When was the last time any of his movies became profitable or funny?

 

Last summer.  


If Jason still haunts you, you're not alone.


#12
#ED

#ED

    NICK'S DAD

  • Junior Moderator
  • 18,916 posts
  • Joined July 24, 2012
  • 97 topics
  • LocationNew York , NY

Last summer.  

 

Grown Ups 2 doesn't count!  :P

 

:ph34r:



#13
kitik

kitik

    Summer Tentpole

  • Free Account
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 8,103 posts
  • Joined July 02, 2012
  • 36 topics
  • LocationToledo

That's a huge number for a comedy.  You're talking Hangover numbers.

 

 

That's why I used the word "huge". Tracking for 22JS should be at least 15-20 million higher for OW than Neighbors. And lots of people are thinking 40 for Neighbors. Throw in some summer weekdays and legs and it should easily hit 200. I'm not sure if it'll quite do Hangover 2 numbers, but it might get relatively close.



#14
Pokearcher

Pokearcher

    Global Phenomenon

  • Free Account
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,781 posts
  • Joined July 09, 2013
  • 40 topics
  • LocationNew Bark Town

Tammy will do well, Sex Tape will also do good business and Let's Not Be Cops looks to be a bust.


Check out my reviews and more at,

 

http://blog.catamountarts.org/


#15
CJohn

CJohn

    Global Phenomenon

  • General Moderator
  • 40,388 posts
  • Joined November 08, 2011
  • 587 topics
  • LocationPortugal

One of these has to bomb or disappoint, IMO. I am betting on Lets Be Cops bombing and Sex Tape disappointing with 50-60M.


Next 4 Weeks Predictions (Updates on Mondays and Thursdays):

- The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 - 155/385

- Horrible Bosses 2 - 28/43/102 | Penguins of Madagascar - 25/42/104

- The Pyramid - 5/11

- Exodus: Gods and Kings - 43/145 | Top Five - 4/9 


#16
stuart360

stuart360

    Box Office Gold

  • Free Account
  • PipPipPip
  • 3,086 posts
  • Joined November 24, 2011
  • 2 topics

When was the last time a Cameron Diaz comedy bombed?, its not going to happen.


THIS TIME ITS WAR!
Posted Image

#17
Captain Jack Sparrow

Captain Jack Sparrow

    Global Phenomenon

  • Free Account
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 15,932 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2011
  • 265 topics
  • LocationLV426
I think Let's Be Cops will be a surprise hit, trailer has been receiving great responses from audiences at theaters I attend.

Hobbit 3 will be lucky to hit $240m


#18
kitik

kitik

    Summer Tentpole

  • Free Account
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 8,103 posts
  • Joined July 02, 2012
  • 36 topics
  • LocationToledo

The thing with Lets Be Cops is that it's clearly a smaller movie than the others. Smaller names and expectations. If it finishes in last place out of all these comedies but still makes 50M, that's a win. No one is expecting it to put up 22JS numbers.

 

 

(Seriously folks, 22 Jump Street is going to be big.)



#19
Films

Films

    Box Office Gold

  • Free Account
  • PipPipPip
  • 4,835 posts
  • Joined June 01, 2013
  • 202 topics
  • LocationLondon
Great great article

WANNA BE AN OSCAR NOMINEE LIKE ME.

 

THEN PLAY CAYOM  ON THE LINK BELOW

 

http://forums.boxoff...-movies-cayom/'


#20
Boner Omega

Boner Omega

    Blockbuster

  • Free Account
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 6,886 posts
  • Joined December 23, 2011
  • 13 topics
  • LocationCorpus Christi

I think Let's Be Cops will be a surprise hit, trailer has been receiving great responses from audiences at theaters I attend.

 

I think it's the The Change-Up of 2014.  The last "R" comedy in a summer full of them, most of which will do pretty good.


Follow me @timgoens

Joseph Turner White: How do I do a film called "The Old Mill" if I don't have an old mill?
Ann Black: Well, first you've got to change the title.


0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users