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BO.com: What Box Office Treasures Await THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG?


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#1
ShawnMR

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The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug is raring up for its December 13 domestic launch, and the anticipated film is tracking for a possible debut north of $75 million. Last year's An Unexpected Journey set the current December record with an $84.6 million bow.

 

Industry tracking suggests interest in Smaug is about 9 percent behind where Journey stood at the same point before release. According to the survey, men over the age of 25 represent the sector where the most anticipation has been lost, while women under 25 have retained the most excitement (giving it a higher "first choice" score than Journey at the same point before release). Generally speaking, the first Hobbit film's tracking peaked early before critical reviews came in--leading to a drop-off in upfront demand.

 

Our social network number-crunching reveals that Twitter discussion for Smaug is 5 percent ahead of the levels of its predecessor. The quality of tweets has shown improvement with Smaug's 9.4 positive-to-negative comment ratio on Twitter (versus 5-to-1 for Journey).

 

On Flixster, the second Hobbit boasts an impressive 99 percent anticipation score (besting Journey by 4 percent)--however, that's aggregated from nearly 33 percent fewer voters, indicating more modest expectations from the online crowd. The daily rate of new Facebook fans is virtually identical between the two films, while over 12 million people have "liked" The Hobbit's official page in the past year.

 

The Hobbit at the Box Office (So Far)

 

An Unexpected Journey has been the target of some criticism from both fans and non-fans since, and before, its release... (more)

 

Full story: http://www.boxoffice...t-december-gold


Edited by ShawnMR, 06 December 2013 - 10:05 AM.

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien


#2
ChD

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I say it will pass 300M again, but this time, it's going to gross a whole lot more overseas. I predict 2nd place World wide behind Iron Man, although first place isn't out of reach just yet. 

I think it has caught on a lot with over seas audience since I myself see more interest in this compared to the first.


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#3
Tauriel

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nice article Shawn thx

 

 

 

[color=rgb(51,51,51);font-family:Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif;font-size:13.333333015441895px;]while women under 25 have retained the most excitement[/color]

well who can rsist him!? :P

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agree with Chd's prediction

I see fire legs!


Edited by Leyla, 06 December 2013 - 10:27 AM.

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#4
Jonwo

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I expect it'll dip slightly on OW but still gross over $300m, it'll be interesting how the competition affects it as Anchorman 2 is likely to open very well, not sure on competition from American Hustle, Saving Mr Bank, Walter Mitty and Wolf of Wall Street, The reviews seem more positive this time round which is a good sign,

#5
Telemachos

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That's one creepy image, Leyla. :lol:


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#6
Tauriel

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That's one creepy image, Leyla. :lol:

well today's fans are like that ;)

well its better than preggo Loki :P


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#7
Accursed Arachnid!™

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A very restrained article from "Samwise the Brave". Also, you can never go wrong with words like "titular", IMO. :P


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#8
lilmac

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The marketing team behind DOS could not have done a better job.  We all now wait with anticipation next weekend's box-office results.  


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#9
Tauriel

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The marketing team behind DOS could not have done a better job.  We all now wait with anticipation next weekend's box-office results.  

+ they did a great job not to show the best bits in the trailers like some other films


Edited by Leyla, 06 December 2013 - 11:29 AM.

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#10
Telemachos

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It sounds like PJ has taken the relatively simple (and stealthy) escape from the Wood Elves and amped it up into a mega action-sequence, much as he did with the Moria descent down the stairs in FOTR (in the book, it was a scant handful of lines with no action whatsoever), except on a much bigger scale.


Edited by Telemachos, 06 December 2013 - 11:28 AM.

You mustn't be afraid to dream a little bigger, darling.

 

We shall not cease from exploration / And the end of all our exploring / Will be to arrive where we started / And know the place for the first time.

 

Disturbingly, Noctis predicted my son's birthday.


#11
ShawnMR

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nice article Shawn thx

 

Thanks!

 

A very restrained article from "Samwise the Brave". Also, you can never go wrong with words like "titular", IMO. :P

 

;)


"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien


#12
ShawnMR

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Made a few minor edits to note updated tracking. Also, $280m is the official BoxOffice forecast as of today.


Edited by ShawnMR, 06 December 2013 - 11:31 AM.

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien


#13
Telemachos

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Made a few minor edits to note updated tracking. Also, $280m is the official BoxOffice forecast as of today.

 

So........ in or out of baumer's club? :lol:


You mustn't be afraid to dream a little bigger, darling.

 

We shall not cease from exploration / And the end of all our exploring / Will be to arrive where we started / And know the place for the first time.

 

Disturbingly, Noctis predicted my son's birthday.


#14
ShawnMR

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So........ in or out of baumer's club? :lol:

 

Haha, I guess BoxOffice's official stance would be "abstain".

 

Personally, I'm still in... but only barely ($270-275m). These early reviews are really backing up what I've suspected for a long time with regard to the first film having suffered the most from the late split into 3 movies... but on that note, I should probably just make my final prediction right now before being swayed anymore next week. :lol:

 

I'm also basing that domestic prediction on a $75m-ish opening, so ultimately, I'm giving Smaug a better multiplier than AUJ no matter what.


Edited by ShawnMR, 06 December 2013 - 11:42 AM.

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien


#15
Telemachos

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Haha, I guess BoxOffice's official stance would be "abstain".

 

Personally, I'm still in... but only barely ($270-275m). These early reviews are really backing up what I've suspected for a long time with regard to the first film having suffered the most from the late split into 3 movies... but on that note, I should probably just make my final prediction right now before being swayed anymore next week. :lol:

 

I'm also basing that domestic prediction on a $75m-ish opening, so ultimately, I'm giving Smaug a better multiplier than AUJ no matter what.

 

We'll see what happens. I'm just going to forget about box office after today and try and enjoy the movie for whatever it ends up being.

 

So what you're saying, Shawn, is that t[color=rgb(51,51,51);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:13px;]he club stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little, and it will fail, to the ruin of all. Yet hope remains while the $280m+ club is true.[/color]


You mustn't be afraid to dream a little bigger, darling.

 

We shall not cease from exploration / And the end of all our exploring / Will be to arrive where we started / And know the place for the first time.

 

Disturbingly, Noctis predicted my son's birthday.


#16
ShawnMR

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So what you're saying, Shawn, is that t[color=rgb(51,51,51);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:13px;]he club stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little, and it will fail, to the ruin of all. Yet hope remains while the $280m+ club is true.[/color]

 

Posted Image


Edited by ShawnMR, 06 December 2013 - 03:27 PM.

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien


#17
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Hopefully many treasures

Hobbit 3 will be lucky to hit $240m


#18
yjs

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I'm relatively new to the forum and love to see how Shawn communicates with forum members. nice.



#19
ShawnMR

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I'm relatively new to the forum and love to see how Shawn communicates with forum members. nice.

 

Thanks, yjs! It's definitely something I always feel is important after past experiences with other forums.

 

And if I haven't already welcomed you to the boards, we're glad to have you. :)


"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien


#20
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I'm relatively new to the forum and love to see how Shawn communicates with forum members. nice.

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