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BoxOffice.com Forecast: CATCHING FIRE Sets Sights on $160+ Million Bow


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#1
ShawnMR

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We're just over three weeks away from one of 2013's most highly anticipated blockbusters, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, and signs are pointing to an opening weekend north of $160 million. The first sequel in Suzanne Collins' adapted book franchise may even become the highest non-3D opener in history--a title currently held by The Dark Knight Rises$160.9 million. The existing November record is $142.8 million (The Twilight Saga: New Moon).

 

Audience interest levels are comparable to those of Rises and Iron Man 3 three weeks out from release, with anticipation highest among women under the age of 25. Women over 25 also indicate a higher interest than men in either age group. Nevertheless, male enthusiasm for Catching Fire is nothing to sneeze at either, trending almost three times stronger than the Twilight finale, Breaking Dawn Part 2, which opened over the same frame last year.

 

Online Buzz

 

2012's The Hunger Games broke new ground for a franchise-starter with its massive $152.5 million debut--the highest figure any movie has ever tallied outside of the summer season. Social media was in a frenzy over the first installment months in advance as distributing studio Lionsgate capitalized on the exploding popularity of Collins' book trilogy. The result was an extraordinary level of synergy for a brand growing by the day. The film went on to bank $408 million in North America, plus an additional $278.5 million overseas.

 

With Catching Fire, the studio is again mounting a highly effective marketing campaign that has the Hungerfan base counting down the minutes until November 22. Twitter discussion is a remarkable 63 percent higher in comparison to the level of chatter the first film was generating at the same point before its release, and just 12.5 percent behind Breaking Dawn Part 2... (more)

 

Full story: http://www.boxoffice...s-catching-fire


Edited by ShawnMR, 31 October 2013 - 11:21 AM.

Predictions: TASM2 (97/238) | Godzilla (75/239) | DoFP (120 4-day/260)

 

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#2
CoolioD1

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Yeah, this one should do pretty well.


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#3
kaijukurt

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170-190 million. Definitely.

#4
k1stpierre

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I'm thinking 180M. Will be second highest OW. This is going to be one of the biggest 2D monster movies EVER.


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#5
k1stpierre

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Just makes you wonder, if CF had 3D......sorry, but I think Avengers OW would be f******.


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#6
Cosmonaut

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I think you all slightly overestimating 3D, there is a huge bunch of ppl that really hates 3D, while nobody hates 2D...


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#7
k1stpierre

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I think you all slightly overestimating 3D, there is a huge bunch of ppl that really hates 3D, while nobody hates 2D...

Not really. A large percentage of what TA and IM3 made came off from 3D tickets. I don't have the percentages, but I read about it last night somewhere. I think they were like, 40% or somewhere around there.


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#8
alisson23

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The repeat views in the movie theater will replace the 3D. I already bought tickets for 2 days.


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#9
Wormy

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The repeat views in the movie theater will replace the 3D. I already bought tickets for 2 days.

 

The Avengers would have had repeat viewings too. 

 

Have this at a conservative 170M.


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#10
lilmac

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Biggest OW ever (attendance)?


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#11
alisson23

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Biggest OW ever (attendance)?

Yes


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#12
alisson23

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The Avengers would have had repeat viewings too. 

 

Have this at a conservative 170M.

But the Hunger Games fans will se in the same OW reapeat times :P  and will have much lower legs than Avengers


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#13
CloneWars

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I saw Avengers twice on OW. The second time I was going to see it in 2D, but all those showings sold out so I had to see it in 3D. Those sold out 2D showings helped boost the gross of Avengers by making people see it in 3D. CF doesn't have that advantage.


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#14
alisson23

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I saw Avengers twice on OW. The second time I was going to see it in 2D, but all those showings sold out so I had to see it in 3D. Those sold out 2D showings helped boost the gross of Avengers by making people see it in 3D. CF doesn't have that advantage.

Interesting. day 22th... come baby or better, 24th!! 


Edited by alisson23, 01 November 2013 - 09:33 AM.

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#15
Cmasterclay

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It's breaking the attendance record. Lack of 3D and November release will keep it off Avengers, but I see 175+ (personally, I predict 182). Just massive hype


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#16
Lordmandeep

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I don't see the hype to demolish the attendance record.
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#17
Jam90

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If it has IM3 levels of hype surely it's debut will be below 175 mil as it does not have 3d?

#18
Lordmandeep

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The thing is I think the hype is there for a massive opening day but it will not hold well over the weekend like THG or IM3 did. 


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#19
Ent

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The thing is I think the hype is there for a massive opening day but it will not hold well over the weekend like THG or IM3 did. 

 

I think The Hunger Games already acted like a sequel with a very massive OW (extreme anticipation factor) and a big 2nd weekend drop at 61.6%  facing few competion that week.

 

That's why i say it was already acting like sequels do cause if you look closely at all the movies that had an OW over $150M (all sequels bar HG), they all had drops > 61,5+ % bar 3 all Under 60% (TA, TDK and IM3) suggesting that for those three the rush or/and the audience number was bigger and couldn't absorb all of it in a single weekend or that the repeat viewings sustained by a stellar WOM made people flock en masse immediately.  That's whjat happened with TA(50%drop) and TDK (52% drop).

 

Considering that HG had the second biggest drop on the second weekend in that group (after HP), it suggests that the first installment was already very frontloaded and that we could expect an even bigger drop second weekend this time around with a massive OW.

 

After that, it will all depend about how CF manage to fare facing bigger competition than its predecessor had to on its third weekend with TH2.


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#20
lab276

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Sure it dropped big in its 2nd weekend, but after that drops were pretty soft, mostly in the 30s.


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