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BO.com Analysis: The Global Potential Of James Cameron's Three AVATAR Sequels


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#1
ShawnMR

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20th Century Fox announced today that James Cameron is expanding his plans for two Avatar sequels into three. The current plan is to release Avatar 2 in December 2016 and Avatar 3 in December 2017. A specific release window for Avatar 4 has yet to be unveiled.

 

The announcement of an additional sequel now being in the pipeline is champagne-worthy news for Fox. The original Avatar grossed nearly $761 million domestically and an astounding $2.78 billion around the globe over three years ago. With the continued market expansion since from countries like China and Russia, among others, the overseas potential for the first sequel is massive. So long as Cameron keeps to his reputation of delivering crowd-pleasers, that story probably won't change for additional franchise installments in the years after 2016.

 

Originally planned for 2014/2015, the delay of Avatar 2 comes as no surprise as pre-production has slowly (but surely) ramped up. Cameron has been working on the sequel scripts for some time now, and he's certainly the kind of filmmaker who takes the "it'll release when it's ready" approach. That's one reason he's such a reliable filmmaker at the box office.

 

If there are any negative sides to the news, they are mere cautionary tales. (more)

 

Full article: http://www.boxoffice...-avatar-sequels


Edited by ShawnMR, 01 August 2013 - 11:56 AM.

Predictions: TASM2 (97/238) | Godzilla (75/239) | DoFP (120 4-day/260)

 

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#2
Chewy

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I'm gonna go out on a limb and say they have the potential to be big


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#3
Jay Hollywood

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You really pump theses articles out! 


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#4
stuart360

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I wonder if all 4 films can reach 10billion worldwise, you would think not but i can honestly see 3 billion worldwide for A2 and then 3 and 4 would 'only' need to hit about 2 billion each.


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#5
fishnets

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LOL that was fast!


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#6
CJohn

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I am pretty sure Avatar 2 will see massive decreases in the 60-70% range in most Europe.


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#7
fishnets

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Please, Shawn, add that AvP/Ghost Rider hack on the list of concerns.


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#8
WINston churCHILL

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Well Fox really needs these Avatar movies because they haven't a 200m domestic grosser since Avatar itself. Additionally as long they keep the budget below 750m a movie it looks like they have an unbeatable cash cow rivaling the Fast Series and even the Marvel Cinematic Universe. 


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#9
Fancyarcher

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Well Fox really needs these Avatar movies because they haven't a 200m domestic grosser since Avatar itself. Additionally as long they keep the budget below 750m a movie it looks like they have an unbeatable cash cow rivaling the Fast Series and even the Marvel Cinematic Universe. 

 

Avatar 2 can easily outgross every Fast and the Furious film.

 

No question bout that.


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#10
Elessar

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I am pretty sure Avatar 2 will see massive decreases in the 60-70% range in most Europe.

 

Decreases for sure but not -60-70%. It's like predicting $230m for DOM. Ridiculous.

 

EDIT:

 

I guess you mean -30% to -40%. Never mind.


Edited by Elessar, 01 August 2013 - 12:23 PM.

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#11
WINston churCHILL

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Avatar 2 can easily outgross every Fast and the Furious film.

 

No question bout that.

Yes but by the time Avatar 2 comes out we probably already have seen 2 more fast movies and they'll also be a lot cheaper to produce. So overall in terms of profitability one could make the argument that the fast series is a better cash cow


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#12
Fancyarcher

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Yes but by the time Avatar 2 comes out we probably already have seen 2 more fast movies and they'll also be a lot cheaper to produce. So overall in terms of profitability one could make the argument that the fast series is a better cash cow

 

Avatar 2 will make over a billion dollars worldwide. Regardless of its budget it’s going to be profitable.


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#13
CJohn

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Decreases for sure but not -60-70%. It's like predicting $230m for DOM. Ridiculous.

 

EDIT:

 

I guess you mean -30% to -40%. Never mind.

I really meant 60-70% in countries like Spain, Italy, Germany, Portugal, etc. That would still mean a massive result in today's box office. 


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#14
fishnets

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I really meant 60-70% in countries like Spain, Italy, Germany, Portugal, etc. That would still mean a massive result in today's box office. 

 

Your POTC5 is going to drop OS just wait and see. And it'll continue to drop dom. With or without those two chemistry-less hacktors.


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#15
Cmasterclay

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Avatar 2 is going to absolutely massive, but unless they deliver a damn good movie, I really think Avatar 3 and 4 just sounds unnecessary as shit to come out that fast.


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#16
CJohn

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Your POTC5 is going to drop OS just wait and see. And it'll continue to drop dom. With or without those two chemistry-less hacktors.

This is a thread about Avatar. What does PotC has anything to do with that?


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#17
Jam90

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30%-40% decrease in most develop markets seems about right IMO.



#18
#ED

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Avatar 2 will be massive OS, but I'm sure 3 and 4 will decline.

 

But I fully expect all of the sequels to make 1B+ WW.


Edited by #ED, 01 August 2013 - 01:06 PM.

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#19
druv10

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I am pretty sure Avatar 2 will see massive decreases in the 60-70% range in most Europe.

 

 

And add in growing markets like China, Russia, India and all of LA. Sky is the limit gross wise, if JC delivers and his track record is great with sequels (A2 and T2).  I think 2B+ OS should happen again as I expect 300-400M in China alone. 


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#20
ShawnMR

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If something hasn't already done it by the end of 2016, I'd imagine talk will eventually turn to "this is going to be the first movie to hit $3 billion". I would just hope that we keep things in perspective and remember that the sequel could "only" make $1.8-2 billion and it would still be very impressive.

 

Frankly, I can see a scenario happening where the film is widely regarded as superior to the first and it still doesn't come anywhere near its box office figures. There's just too much to live up to; this isn't like Pirates or LOTR where the first films had a lot of growing room in terms of audience size. My guess is Avatar 2 plays out, admissions-wise, similar to TDKR domestically so long as the film is good. Overseas is harder to say with exchange rates varying greatly over the next few years.


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Predictions: TASM2 (97/238) | Godzilla (75/239) | DoFP (120 4-day/260)

 

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes


"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien



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