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Keeping Box Office Perspective on MAN OF STEEL


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#1
ShawnMR

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Warner Bros. is hours away from launching Man of Steel into theaters. As usually happens when a tentpole's release approaches, the line between optimistic and objective expectations becomes blurred in the wake of overreaction. This film is no different.

 

There are strong arguments for an opening weekend over $100 million (BoxOffice is officially forecasting $115 million), but perspective should be kept.

 

First and foremost, the studio itself is expecting a debut in the $80-89 million range. Contrary to growing opinion in certain corners of the Internet (and, by extension, the film industry), that would be anything but a disappointing start for the film. Modest when compared to bigger openers, certainly, but it would set a new standard among the reboot sub-genre as none have ever opened to more than $75.2 million (2009's Star Trek) during a three-day weekend.

 

Granted, there are asterisks to that fact: Trek didn't have 3D to help boost ticket revenue, and more notably, last year's The Amazing Spider-Man opted for a Tuesday release (drastically deflating it's three-day weekend and inflating it's overall multiplier). Batman Begins similarly debuted on a Wednesday in 2005... (more)

Full article: http://www.boxoffice...on-man-of-steel


Edited by ShawnMR, 13 June 2013 - 01:49 PM.

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"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

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#2
#ED

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[color=rgb(51,51,51);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;background-color:rgb(249,249,249);]After Sunday, [/color]Man of Steel[color=rgb(51,51,51);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;background-color:rgb(249,249,249);] has to live or die by its own qualities in the eyes of general audiences. But going into the first few days of release, let's remember that an opening weekend alone isn't the only barometer for a film's entire box office run.[/color]

 

Agreed.



#3
Michael Gary Scottt

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I think anything over 85 is good
  • #ED likes this
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#4
CJohn

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Yeah, a bit too late for this article since now everyone will see an under 100M OW as a disappointment/flop.


Next 4 Weeks Predictions (Updates on Mondays and Thursdays):

- The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 - 155/385

- Horrible Bosses 2 - 28/43/102 | Penguins of Madagascar - 25/42/104

- The Pyramid - 5/11

- Exodus: Gods and Kings - 43/145 | Top Five - 4/9 


#5
Michael Gary Scottt

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Yeah, a bit too late for this article since now everyone will see an under 100M OW as a disappointment/flop.

I wouldn't.
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#6
ShawnMR

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Yeah, a bit too late for this article since now everyone will see an under 100M OW as a disappointment/flop.

 

That's exactly why this article has never been relevant until now.


Edited by ShawnMR, 13 June 2013 - 01:58 PM.

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#7
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Edited by Lordmandeep, 13 June 2013 - 02:00 PM.

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#8
CJohn

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I wouldn't.

I am predicting an 90M OW right now, but I feel that if it fails to hit 100M I will see it as a disappointment.


Next 4 Weeks Predictions (Updates on Mondays and Thursdays):

- The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 - 155/385

- Horrible Bosses 2 - 28/43/102 | Penguins of Madagascar - 25/42/104

- The Pyramid - 5/11

- Exodus: Gods and Kings - 43/145 | Top Five - 4/9 


#9
John Marston

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Under 90m is disappointing to me no matter what people say

#10
Michael Gary Scottt

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What if it did 90/300 how would that be disappointing?
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#11
CJohn

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What if it did 90/300 how would that be disappointing?

We don't know if WOM is going to be that good.


Next 4 Weeks Predictions (Updates on Mondays and Thursdays):

- The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 - 155/385

- Horrible Bosses 2 - 28/43/102 | Penguins of Madagascar - 25/42/104

- The Pyramid - 5/11

- Exodus: Gods and Kings - 43/145 | Top Five - 4/9 


#12
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I still see 100 million but fail to reach 300 


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#13
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Wait? StiD missing 100M was deemed a flop/disappointment (Paramount first would tell you they clearly wish it did better OW with 3D, Imax and inflation)  but MoS missing that 100M bar with all that tremendous hype would not be called a disappointment? :huh:


Edited by dashrendar44, 13 June 2013 - 02:04 PM.

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#14
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Wait? StiD missing 100M was deemed a flop/disappointment (Paramount first would tell you they clearly wish it did better OW with 3D, Imax and inflation)  but MoS missing that 100M bar with all that tremendous hype would not be called a disappointment? :huh:

 

 

Don't try and figure that one out.. I'd just let it go and move on.. ;) 


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#15
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Wait? StiD missing 100M was deemed a flop/disappointment (Paramount first would tell you they clearly wish it did better OW with 3D, Imax and inflation)  but MoS missing that 100M bar with all that tremendous hype would not be called a disappointment? :huh:

 

 

REVISIONISM!!  :P


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#16
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Wait? StiD missing 100M was deemed a flop/disappointment (Paramount first would tell you they clearly wish it did better OW with 3D, Imax and inflation)  but MoS missing that 100M bar with all that tremendous hype would not be called a disappointment? :huh:

Well, you know how our forum works. And the perspective comes in after RT scores too  :P

 

It's kinda weird though cause there are members who predict 130M+, 150M+, yet saying 90M-100M will not disappoint them?  :huh:


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#17
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Well, you know how our forum works. And the perspective comes in after RT scores too  :P

 

It's kinda weird though cause there are members who predict 130M+, 150M+, yet saying 90M-100M will not disappoint them?  :huh:

 

 

Stop making sense, this is a box office forum! 


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#18
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Well, you know how our forum works. And the perspective comes in after RT scores too  :P

 

It's kinda weird though cause there are members who predict 130M+, 150M+, yet saying 90M-100M will not disappoint them?  :huh:

 

 

Don't know about everyone else, but I sort of can't wait for this weekend to end and move on to the next movie that hopefully won't result in 1100 plus pages of drama, meltdowns and spins..


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#19
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Don't know about everyone else, but I sort of can't wait for this weekend to end and move on to the next movie that hopefully won't result in 1100 plus pages of drama, meltdowns and spins..

But it will next up is Thor 2
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#20
dashrendar44

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Well, you know how our forum works. And the perspective comes in after RT scores too  :P

 

It's kinda weird though cause there are members who predict 130M+, 150M+, yet saying 90M-100M will not disappoint them?  :huh:

 

For the past month, I think it would at least clear the 100M OW and I'm still sticking with it but no way around it if it does less (75M-90M), I'd call that a disappointment. That movie was so overhyped everywhere and here especially (those crazy predictions you mentioned) to spin it.


Edited by dashrendar44, 13 June 2013 - 02:26 PM.

" #Star Wars is a YA franchise. Deal with it. RIP Interstellar :(


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