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The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug Over/Under The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Domestic)


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#1
filmnerdjamie

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We all remember the “Hobbit will hit $400 million!” proclamations. Then reality settled in and the tune changed to “Floppit.” Word of mouth and reviews were generally mixed and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey became the lowing grossing Lord of the Rings film stateside. Practically limped to $300M domestic (considering the 3D/IMAX bumps it had that the original Rings trilogy didn't) and when it did $1 billion worldwide, there seemed to be a "Whatever" reaction compared to the same $1B+ grosses for The Avengers, Skyfall and The Dark Knight Rises.

 

As the marketing officially kicks off this weekend (the trailer will be in front of Man of Steel), its time to ask if the box-office receipts will increase, decrease or stay the same for The Desolation of Smaug.

 

12 years ago (And it feels weird saying that!), we were all pumped to see the story continue from the closing moments of The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. Home video sales, along with the Extended Edition DVDs, exploded keeping the franchise in the conversation during the year long downtime.

 

Nowhere near the same excitement… or hype… or even regular awareness at this point in time for Smaug like there was for The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers. Jackson and WB banked on catching lightning in a bottle twice. And it feels like this time they’re gonna get struck by lightning instead come December, at least stateside.


Edited by filmnerdjamie, 08 June 2013 - 03:27 PM.

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#2
Telemachos

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At the moment, I see it either dipping slightly or rising slightly. Say $295-310m range. So I'm in and out, simultaneously. :P

Edited by Telemachos, 08 June 2013 - 03:13 PM.

trs_sm_zpsc68b772a.jpg

 

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#3
Michael Tyrion Scott

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Can't judge yet
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#4
kowhite

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I'm with Telemachos...I could see it going up, but it's gonna be in the same ballpark as the first one. Ill officially be on the over side of the fence though. If for no reason I think this'll be a more appealing film.

#5
baumer

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Down.  270 mill.


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#6
Ozymandias

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Over.



#7
Jawa of the Dreadfort

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Under. The novelty of Middle Earth's return to the big screen will be gone, and as it isn't the finale, it won't see a bump. Think Attack of the Clones, but a smaller drop.


Edited by Jawa, 08 June 2013 - 04:27 PM.

Electro's Milkshake will be to TASM 2 what 3D was to Avatar.

#8
luxneji

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i think i will open about the same and WOM will determine if it goes up or down, if it is mixed it will go to 270 



#9
Noctis

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Under. Even with the dragon, it's going to fight mixed WOM from The Hobbit 1 and the fact that it's the middle chapter will only hurt it. 

 

And unlike 2012, 2013 is going to have a lot more appealing films in the winter. Catching Fire and Thor target similar enough demographics that it's really going to put a dent in TH2.


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#10
Telemachos

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Under. Even with the dragon, it's going to fight mixed WOM from The Hobbit 1 and the fact that it's the middle chapter will only hurt it. 
 
And unlike 2012, 2013 is going to have a lot more appealing films in the winter. Catching Fire and Thor target similar enough demographics that it's really going to put a dent in TH2.


Both CF and THOR 2 open a month earlier. They won't dent TH2 any more than IM3 hurt MOS.
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trs_sm_zpsc68b772a.jpg

 

Sometimes you get a pooch that can't be screwed, ya know? —The Right Stuff

 

Disturbingly, Noctis predicted my son's birthday.


#11
John Marston

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Under. Even with the dragon, it's going to fight mixed WOM from The Hobbit 1 and the fact that it's the middle chapter will only hurt it.

And unlike 2012, 2013 is going to have a lot more appealing films in the winter. Catching Fire and Thor target similar enough demographics that it's really going to put a dent in TH2.




Those films open before Hobbit. Thor by more than a Month

#12
Noctis

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Both CF and THOR 2 open a month earlier. They won't dent TH2 any more than IM3 hurt MOS.

 

They will. You satisfy certain audiences enough, and their chances of coming out to see another film is less. 



#13
Telemachos

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I don't particularly buy that, especially for such fairly entrenched fan bases.
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trs_sm_zpsc68b772a.jpg

 

Sometimes you get a pooch that can't be screwed, ya know? —The Right Stuff

 

Disturbingly, Noctis predicted my son's birthday.


#14
John Marston

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Waiting for trailer. Leaning towards over. Also the negative WOM for first Hobbit is very exaggerated

Edited by Robert Muldoon, 08 June 2013 - 05:03 PM.

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#15
CoolioD1

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Around 280m, I should think.

#16
Chewy

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Exactly the same amount, to the cent


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#17
riczhang

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I'm thinking more. It's got a fucking dragon, and the story has finally hit the exciting parts. Let's be honest here, TH1 barely got through any story and the parts it did get through aren't particularly exciting. And inflation will help; when it'll be this close every little bit matters.

#18
ShawnMR

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Under, but it's very early and that's mostly based on the fact that it's the middle part of a trilogy.


Predictions: TASM2 (97/238) | Godzilla (75/239) | DoFP (120 4-day/260)

 

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#19
Neo

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Under. The novelty of Middle Earth's return to the big screen will be gone, and as it isn't the finale, it won't see a bump. Think Attack of the Clones, but a smaller drop.

But AUJ didn't set the box office on fire like TPM did.


You need to check into rehab if you think TA2 isn't going to make a dent in AVATAR 2's box office.. You are stoned dude and need to step back and re-evaluate what your saying... :sherlock: 

it ll be striving make half of what first one did

 

AVATAR 2  At best will do around 475-500M Domestic

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#20
Talkie

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Over.

 

The whole "Floppit" meme is a phenomenon of this board and does not reflect the reaction of the general audience, or reality, frankly. The first movie did not get mixed or bad WOM, as shown by its 84% audience approval rating on RT. Critical reaction was mixed, but that certainly didn't hinder the film from reaching $300M/$1B. The vast majority of viewers enjoyed the first and will be back for the second. It will likely increase slightly both domestically overseas. 


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