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May 2013 Domestic Analysis: Franchises Drive Best May Attendance in a Decade; Will June Follow Suit?


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#1
ShawnMR

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Full article: http://www.boxoffice...market-analysis

 

Pop open the champagne bottles: summer is off to one of its best starts in history.

Once the final numbers are crunched today, BoxOffice projects May's cumulative box office haul will eclipse $1.14 billion--easily setting a new May record (which was reached far ahead of the deadline during Memorial Day weekend).
 

That tops the three highest Mays on record entering this year: 2011, 2012, and 2009 with $1.037 billion, $1.025 billion, and $1.019 billion, respectively.
 

More importantly, it represents a big increase over May 2012... (more)


Edited by ShawnMR, 03 June 2013 - 07:18 AM.

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

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#2
#ED

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WIll this lead into a bad June?



#3
ShawnMR

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WIll this lead into a bad June?

 

Not sure we'll see any attendance records, but, I think June will be solid.


"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien


#4
ChD

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The only way I would see a strong June is if Man of Steel, This is the End, Monster University and World War Z have a solid first couple of weeks. We know that Man of Steel and MU are assured to cross 200M, if not 300M, but that's surely not going to happen in June. World War Z might open to around 40M, but will get carried to 100M, max, maybe 120M, and This is the End is still pretty much a wild card.

 

The Heat won't have a big opening due to shitty marketing, and White House Down won't make any more money in its re-release than it already did in it's original run.


Edited by ChD, 03 June 2013 - 07:51 AM.

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"How happy is the blameless vestal's lot! The world forgetting, by the world forgot. Eternal sunshine of the spotless mind! Each prayer accepted, and each wish resigned."

 

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#5
lab276

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Attendance-wise, May 2013 reached heights not seen in ten years. The month slightly overtook May 2004's inflation-adjusted market tally of $1.122 billion ($879.8 million in actual 2004 revenue) to make it the third-highest attended May since 2000 (behind 2002 and runner-up 2003).


There are some mistakes in this paragraph, it's the fourth most attended May since 2000 (you could even go back further, perhaps to the early 60s) 2004 is ahead by about 6m admissions and 2003 is actually the most attended May, ahead of 2002, by 700k.

#6
lab276

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As for June, it looks pretty great. Holdovers are much stronger than last year and MOS might be quite huge. The main problem is next weekend, with no major release, holdovers will have to work harder than usual (too hard?) to make up the difference. It could conceivably beat 2009 (145.7), but everything would have to go right. I though it could happen last year, but it didn't.

#7
Biggestgeekever

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I'm having a hard time seeing June not setting a new record BO wise, at least. This weekend was fairly strong, and while next week will be a bit of a downturn, it's looking like The Purge might break out anyway.

 

The final three weeks of June, though, just look so strong that missing $1.1 billion would require Man of Steel and Monsters both disappointing to some extent. And I don't see that happening.  ;)



#8
mcclaine

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I think June is going to keep strong as May did. 



#9
Jandrew

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I think June can break records. Man of Steel, MU, the 3-way of WWZ/Heat/and WHD, TITE, Purge could help out, and the holdovers will provide a sprinkle. This June has to do gangbusters and it could possibly trump July.


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#10
CJohn

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May and June may be great, but July is going to be an absolute disaster.


Next 4 Weeks Predictions (Updates on Mondays and Thursdays):

The Maze Runner - 32/101 | A Walk Among the Tombstones - 16/51 | This is Where I Leave You - 9/28

- The Equalizer - 34/103 | The Boxtrolls - 9/27

- Annabelle - 44/86 | Gone Girl - 24/82

- Disney's Alexander - 16/53 | The Judge - 11/35 | Dracula Untold - 20/50


#11
Jay Hollywood

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Hoping June does 900m.

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#12
mcclaine

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MoS will pass the $200M easily and could even cross the $300M if WOM is good.

Monsters is gonna do very well, although i don't know is $200M is a lock.

 

Then there's the comedy thing.  The Hangover was supposed to make at least $170M or more but it tanked.

We are entering June and there's 3 comedies ahead of us: The Internship, This Is The End and The Heat.

One of those are going to be this summer's comedy crossing $150M



#13
Talkie

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The only way I would see a strong June is if Man of Steel, This is the End, Monster University and World War Z have a solid first couple of weeks. We know that Man of Steel and MU are assured to cross 200M, if not 300M, but that's surely not going to happen in June. World War Z might open to around 40M, but will get carried to 100M, max, maybe 120M, and This is the End is still pretty much a wild card.

 

The Heat won't have a big opening due to shitty marketing, and White House Down won't make any more money in its re-release than it already did in it's original run.

 

WHD is a re-release? Or are you talking about Olympus whatever?  :huh:



#14
ChD

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WHD is a re-release? Or are you talking about Olympus whatever?  :huh:

 

Olympus.


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#15
Dragon

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WHD is a re-release? Or are you talking about Olympus whatever?  :huh:

He's trying to be funny yet that joke is played out.


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#16
Star-Lord Olive

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I have faith in MOS, MU and This is the End.



#17
firedeep

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From 'Iron Man 3' to 'Hangover III': The Profit Breakdown of May's Blockbusters

 

 

With worldwide marketing now costing as much as $175 million per film (gulp), THR sources reveal how box office, home entertainment and TV will contribute to each studio's bottom line.

 

Iron Man 3 (Disney/Marvel Studios)

Budget/marketing: $375 million
Projected global gross: $1.2 billion

Revenue analysis: May's biggest grosser is on track to generate profits upward of $400 million for Marvel and Disney, even after gross participants -- including Robert Downey Jr. -- take their fees, along with the $90 million or so owed Paramount because of its previous distribution deal with Marvel.

The Great Gatsby (Warners Bros./Village Roadshow Pictures)

Budget/marketing: $280 million
Projected global gross: $345 million

Revenue analysis: Thanks to generous Australian tax incentives, the budget for Baz Luhrmann's 3D epic was a modest $105 million. With a surprisingly decent domestic haul ($129 million to date) and predictably good global business, Gatsby should result in profits in the $25 million range.

 

Star Trek Into Darkness (Paramount/Skydance Productions)

Budget/marketing: $365 million
Projected global gross: $490 million

Revenue analysis: J.J. Abrams' sequel is on track to exceed the $385.7 million earned by his 2009 Star Trek. Fueled by a better showing internationally (Paramount expects overseas box office to hit $260 million), it won't earn as much domestically as that film, but profits should reach $75 million.

Fast & Furious 6 (Universal)

Budget/marketing: $335 million
Projected global gross: $730 million

Revenue analysis: The sixth installment is a blockbuster domestically and abroad. It should turn in a franchise-best performance (Fast Five did $626.1 million in 2011) and reap profits of $200 million or more for Universal and Elliott Management after gross players Vin Diesel and Dwayne Johnsonare paid.

 

Hangover Part III (Warner Bros./Legendary Pictures)

Budget/marketing: $253 million
Projected global gross: $375 million

Revenue analysis: The final Hangover won't reach the level of the sequel ($586.8 million), but it is performing well overseas and has a lower budget than its May rivals, so it still should generate profits of $25 million or more after director Todd Phillips and other gross participants are paid their fees.



#18
kayumanggi

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May and June may be great, but July is going to be an absolute disaster.


DM ll and TLR are tracking well. PR has plenty of time to generate more buzz.

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#19
Lordmandeep

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There is no mega grossing film in July unless Dm2 goes to well over 300 million. 


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#20
grey ghost

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If something like TF4 was opening in late June it would be a lock but I'm not sure.

If both MU and MOS break out over 350+ m then it would be in the cards.

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