Jump to content

Cinebrate-web-banner-728x90


  • Start New Topic
Welcome to the BoxOffice® Forums
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. This message will be removed once you have signed in. Please note that forum accounts are separate from BoxOffice.com subscriber accounts.
Login to Account Create an Account
Photo

BoxOffice Social Network Futures: MAN OF STEEL


  • Please log in to reply
63 replies to this topic

#1
ShawnMR

ShawnMR

  • Forum Admin
  • 14,373 posts
  • Joined November 04, 2011
  • 462 topics

Full article: http://www.boxoffice...-for-522-or-523

 

Summer's sophomore month is just around the corner. With it will come Warner Bros.' Man of Steel, currently waging a strong campaign to re-brand the struggling modern image of Superman.

June is not usually known for producing phenom-like blockbusters. In fact, only two June releases in history have reached $300 million domestically when opening before the 18th of the month: E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial and Jurassic Park.
 

In all, just five June releases have ever hit the triple-century mark at the box office (the aforementioned two, followed by The Lion KingTransformers: Revenge of the Fallen, and Toy Story 3). Compare that to May's 14 and July's 12, and you'll see why the June release has been at the center of some skepticism.
 

We think that's changing, though... (more)


Edited by ShawnMR, 23 May 2013 - 07:03 AM.

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien


#2
JohnnyGossamer

JohnnyGossamer

    Box Office Gold

  • Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,942 posts
  • Joined April 22, 2013
  • 2 topics

Will World War Z and Monsters U. gobble up the young adult and family audiences respectively the following weekend? If so, Man of Steel likely will struggle to reach $300M D... Surprisingly, I know far too many people more anxious to see World War Z than Man of Steel. I've chalked it up to the success of Walking Dead. Not saying it will gross anywhere near Man of Steel but I do expect it, along with Monsters University, to combine for $125M+ the following weekend.


Edited by JohnnyGossamer, 23 May 2013 - 11:13 AM.


#3
grey ghost

grey ghost

    Blockbuster

  • Member
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 5,748 posts
  • Joined November 08, 2011
  • 53 topics
Remember the closest to social media analysis was looking at the number of YouTube trailer views?

Yay for twitter.

How accurate have Facebook indicators been recently?

Gamble points at the Box Office Casino!

CLICK HERE


#4
ShawnMR

ShawnMR

  • Forum Admin
  • 14,373 posts
  • Joined November 04, 2011
  • 462 topics

The trouble with WWZ, IMO, will be word of mouth. I expect a decent opening for it, but then falling off a cliff.

 

Monsters will target a different core audience so it and MoS can easily co-exist.


"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien


#5
ChD

ChD

    Summer Tentpole

  • Member
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 9,967 posts
  • Joined September 18, 2012
  • 59 topics
  • LocationHogwarts

Man of Steel is aiming big. I think it's going to open a lot higher than the predicted 108.


"You can have all the faith in spirits and the afterlife, heaven and hell, but when it comes to this world, don't be an idiot, because you can tell that you put your faith in God to get through the day, but when it comes time to cross the road, I know you look both ways."

 

"How happy is the blameless vestal's lot! The world forgetting, by the world forgot. Eternal sunshine of the spotless mind! Each prayer accepted, and each wish resigned."

 

35c3g42.jpg


#6
ShawnMR

ShawnMR

  • Forum Admin
  • 14,373 posts
  • Joined November 04, 2011
  • 462 topics

Remember the closest to social media analysis was looking at the number of YouTube trailer views?

Yay for twitter.

How accurate have Facebook indicators been recently?

 

My personal take is that Facebook requires a lot of care. Most of the franchise fan pages have been around for multiple films. That's a big reason why MoS's fan total is "low" compared to things like TDKR, Iron Man, etc. Usually the best method in that case is to look more at the day-to-day trends over a period of recent time.

 

A good example: Wreck-It Ralph had a low fan total last October, but it started adding fans at a rapid pace 3-4 weeks out and really offered the first indication of it doing well.

 

Granted, nothing's a perfect science. That's why I'm a fan of multiple comparison points to give the big picture.


"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien


#7
grey ghost

grey ghost

    Blockbuster

  • Member
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 5,748 posts
  • Joined November 08, 2011
  • 53 topics

Will World War Z and Monsters U. gobble up the young adult and family audiences respectively the following weekend? If so, Man of Steel likely will struggle to reach $300M D... Surprisingly, I know far too many people more anxious to see World War Z than Man of Steel. I've chalked it up to success of Walking Dead. Not saying it will gross anywhere near Man of Steel but I do expect it, along with Monsters University, to combine for $125M+ the following weekend.


I kinda agree.

MOS might need 120 m OW to cross 300 m comfortably because of the crowded market.

But I have a feeling WWZ is gonna get Trekked.

Gamble points at the Box Office Casino!

CLICK HERE


#8
#ED

#ED

    A few months from now...

  • Junior Moderator
  • 17,985 posts
  • Joined July 24, 2012
  • 90 topics
  • LocationNew York , NY

Man Of Steel needs 100M+ to hit 300M. It's not happening under 100M. Too much competition.



#9
GiantCALBears

GiantCALBears

    Box Office Gold

  • Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,465 posts
  • Joined November 08, 2011
  • 22 topics
  • LocationBay Area, CA

Will World War Z and Monsters U. gobble up the young adult and family audiences respectively the following weekend? If so, Man of Steel likely will struggle to reach $300M D... Surprisingly, I know far too many people more anxious to see World War Z than Man of Steel. I've chalked it up to success of Walking Dead. Not saying it will gross anywhere near Man of Steel but I do expect it, along with Monsters University, to combine for $125M+ the following weekend.


How about no? Neither will have any noticeable effect if its as good as Pirates 1, BB, Iron Man
Evil prevails when good men do nothing. -Edmund Burke

#10
GiantCALBears

GiantCALBears

    Box Office Gold

  • Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,465 posts
  • Joined November 08, 2011
  • 22 topics
  • LocationBay Area, CA

Man Of Steel needs 100M+ to hit 300M. It's not happening under 100M. Too much competition.


What competition again? I really don't see any movie cutting into this if its received decent.
Evil prevails when good men do nothing. -Edmund Burke

#11
Untitled Hatebox Project

Untitled Hatebox Project

    Blockbuster

  • Member
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 6,733 posts
  • Joined December 11, 2011
  • 7 topics

MoS has a 90m-130m OW range at this point. Nothing in between would surprise me.


"Movies today are worse than they've ever been. Genuine risk in big productions is almost non-existent. Television takes all the artistic chances now. It's a bad time to be a film fan." - Steven Spielberg

#12
#ED

#ED

    A few months from now...

  • Junior Moderator
  • 17,985 posts
  • Joined July 24, 2012
  • 90 topics
  • LocationNew York , NY

What competition again? I really don't see any movie cutting into this if its received decent.

 

Monsters University

World War Z

White House Down

Despicable Me 2

The Lone Ranger

Pacific Room

 

These will all cut into the legs IMO.



#13
GiantCALBears

GiantCALBears

    Box Office Gold

  • Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,465 posts
  • Joined November 08, 2011
  • 22 topics
  • LocationBay Area, CA

Monsters University
World War Z
White House Down
Despicable Me 2
The Lone Ranger
Pacific Room
 
These will all cut into the legs IMO.


Lololololol really? I think you are wrong honestly, none of those are even close to the level of hype this has and 3/5 are potential bombs on that list
Evil prevails when good men do nothing. -Edmund Burke

#14
kayumanggi

kayumanggi

    Global Phenomenon

  • Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 34,525 posts
  • Joined November 08, 2011
  • 127 topics
  • LocationPilipinas

Monsters University
World War Z
White House Down
Despicable Me 2
The Lone Ranger
Pacific Room

These will all cut into the legs IMO.


Again, back in 2009 STAR TREK opened before and after big movies (tougher than what MOS is going to face) but it didn't cut its legs. I'm not saying MOS won't be vulnerable though.

happyphilippines.gif


#15
#ED

#ED

    A few months from now...

  • Junior Moderator
  • 17,985 posts
  • Joined July 24, 2012
  • 90 topics
  • LocationNew York , NY

Lololololol really? I think you are wrong honestly, none of those are even close to the level of hype this has and 3/5 are potential bombs on that list

 

Dude, I want MoS to hit 400M!! (lol)

 

I'm not bringing down the movie, I just think the release date is shit. 



#16
GiantCALBears

GiantCALBears

    Box Office Gold

  • Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,465 posts
  • Joined November 08, 2011
  • 22 topics
  • LocationBay Area, CA

Dude, I want MoS to hit 400M!! (lol)
 
I'm not bringing down the movie, I just think the release date is shit.


I think it's a great release date, it's a weak rest of the summer post May. I could be wrong but DM2 is the only one I see doing really good business of those 5 and its not exactly in the same age range as MOS same with MU
Evil prevails when good men do nothing. -Edmund Burke

#17
JohnnyGossamer

JohnnyGossamer

    Box Office Gold

  • Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,942 posts
  • Joined April 22, 2013
  • 2 topics

When you reference Batman Begins, Star Trek, Pirates 1 and Iron Man then I assume you expect Man of Steel to gross just short of $300M. When you average all of the aforementioned out, it's something like $270M. Of course, no 3D for any of 'em.



#18
ShawnMR

ShawnMR

  • Forum Admin
  • 14,373 posts
  • Joined November 04, 2011
  • 462 topics

MoS has a 90m-130m OW range at this point. Nothing in between would surprise me.

 

I may get stoned for this, but a $130m OW would give it a decent shot at $400m domestic. That obviously presumes great WOM, though.

 

I think a fair comparison here is Iron Man 1. That film had tons of great pre-release buzz... not too dissimilar from what MoS is getting right now. And while it opened up against little competition, it still opened over $100m and legged its way out past a 3x multiplier with a fair bit of competition opening after it--and no real advantage from summer weekdays.

 

I don't want expectations for MoS to inflate to the point where less than $300m is disappointing, but, if the movie delivers... I think it has a similar fate as Iron Man and Transformers.


"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien


#19
GiantCALBears

GiantCALBears

    Box Office Gold

  • Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,465 posts
  • Joined November 08, 2011
  • 22 topics
  • LocationBay Area, CA

I may get stoned for this, but a $130m OW would give it a decent shot at $400m domestic. That obviously presumes great WOM, though.
 
I think a fair comparison here is Iron Man 1. That film had tons of great pre-release buzz... not too dissimilar from what MoS is getting right now. And while it opened up against little competition, it still opened over $100m and legged its way out past a 3x multiplier with a fair bit of competition opening after it--and no real advantage from summer weekdays.
 
I don't want expectations for MoS to inflate to the point where less than $300m is disappointing, but, if the movie delivers... I think it has a similar fate as Iron Man and Transformers.


Lol and that's right around June OW record, too bad we don't have a thread for that and have one comparing the OW to The Hobbit which is pretty weak (oh wait...)
Evil prevails when good men do nothing. -Edmund Burke

#20
ShawnMR

ShawnMR

  • Forum Admin
  • 14,373 posts
  • Joined November 04, 2011
  • 462 topics

Lol and that's right around June OW record, too bad we don't have a thread for that and have one comparing the OW to The Hobbit which is pretty weak (oh wait...)

 

;)


"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes

 

"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen." - Conan O'Brien



0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users